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Chief Economist’s Comment – 11 Nov 2018

 

Sunday Wrap

by Erik F. Nielsen, Group Chief Economist & Global Head of CIB Research

 

   Short summary

So, inspired by the outcome of the mid-term elections, and the Treasury’s bizarre note on Scandinavia, I will today:

 

Make a few observations about the “Land of Opportunity” versus “Socialist Scandinavia”,

And, since “the season has begun”, I’ll summarize the key European appointments during the next year or so.

 

   Kurzzusammenfassung.   Publikation nur auf Englisch verfügbar

Inspiriert durch den Ausgang der Zwischenwahlen in den USA und der bizarren Mitteilung des US-Finanzministeriums zu Skandinavien werde ich heute:

 

Ein paar Beobachtungen zum „Land der unbegrenzten Möglichkeiten“ im Vergleich zum „sozialistischen Skandinavien“ anstellen,

Und, weil „die Saison begonnen hat“, die wesentlichen europäische Posten zusammenfassen, deren Besetzung im bevorstehenden Zwölfmonatszeitraum ansteht.

 

   Breve riassunto.   Pubblicazione disponibile solo in inglese

Sulla scia del risultato delle elezioni di medio termine e sulla bizzarra nota del Tesoro sulla Scandinavia, io oggi:

 

Presento per iniziare alcune osservazioni sulla “Terra delle Opportunità” rispetto alla “Scandinavia Socialista”.

Passo poi in rassegna, dato che “la stagione è cominciata”, i principali appuntamenti europei per il prossimo anno circa.

 

 

 

 

 

 

4Q18 – 27 Sep 2018

 

The UniCredit Economics Chartbook

Countries: Spain, Portugal, France, Poland, China, Germany, Hungary, Sweden, United Kingdom, Austria, Czech Republic, Euroland, Greece, Italy, Norway, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey, United States

 

Global growth still resilient, but less synchronized

The global business cycle has lost impetus as the geographical growth pattern has become more uneven, with the US outperforming most other developed countries and some emerging markets (EM) experiencing turbulence. After having declined earlier in the year, our proprietary Global Leading Indicator now suggests stabilization in the growth rate of global trade at a level just below trend. However, manufacturing PMIs in most countries are still drifting lower and trade tensions between the US and China have intensified recently, posing downside risks to the global economy. Since the US and China account for about 40% of global economic activity, an escalation could not only weigh on growth in these two countries but is likely to spill over to the rest of the world. As of today, about 2% of global trade has been affected by higher tariffs. Tensions in EM have so far remained contained to countries with weak fundamentals and we do not expect…

 

 

 

 

 

4Q18 – 27 Sep 2018

 

CEE Quarterly      > english     > german

Countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Hungary, Russia, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine

   A test of resilience

Emerging market (EM) growth will depend more on domestic demand in 4Q18 and 2019 as global trade growth slows further.

 

Reliance on capital inflows, macroeconomic imbalances and diverse policy stances will lead to growth differentiation in EM in general and CEE in particular, at a time when financial conditions are expected to tighten in developed markets (DM).

 

At the same time, capital scarcity could stoke up contagion risks and affect financial stability across EM.

Mounting political risks add to uncertanty, with…

 

   Ein Härtetest

Nachdem das Welthandelswachstum weiter nachlässt, wird das Wachstum in den Schwellenmärkten in 4Q18 und 2019 stärker von der Binnennachfrage abhängen.

 

Die Abhängigkeit von Kapitalzuflüssen, makroökonomische Ungleichgewichte und unterschiedliche politische Ausrichtungen werden in den Schwellenmärkten (Emerging Markets – EM) und insbesondere in der Region Mittel- und Osteuropa (CEE) zu einem Wachstumsgefälle führen, während zugleich in den entwickelten Märkten (Developed Markets – DM) eine Straffung der Finanzierungsbedingungen zu erwarten ist.

 

Kapitalverknappung könnte Ansteckungsrisiken mit sich bringen und die Finanzstabilität in allen Schwellenmärkten beeinträchtigen.

 

Durch steigende politische Risiken wird die Unsicherheit…

 

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    Global Head of CIB Research

    Erik F. Nielsen

    UniCredit Bank AG London Branch
    Moor House, 120 London Wall
    EC2Y 5ET London